Client: Port Authority of Santa Cruz de Tenerife
The goal of this study is to determine the expected demand for a possible Motorway of the Sea (MoS) between the port of SC Tenerife and the Belgium port of Zeebrugge. In order to determine future potential demand, the following steps have been followed:
1- Characterization of current general cargo flows and identification of main maritime routes between the Atlantic region next to West Africa and North Europe.
2- Definition of main assumptions regarding the percentage of cargo that can be gain from current direct/indirect services between WA and North Europe.
In such context, three different scenarios (optimistic, medium and pessimistic) have been defined according to abovementioned assumptions.
3- Once expected cargo flow is determined, the next step is to predict future demand. For import/export flows, a multiple regression model have been used to define future increasing rates by considering the GDP, as the main socioeconomic parameter. For transhipment cargo, those that take place at hub ports coming/going to feeder ports, an increasing rate based on historical data was used.
4- Finally, by using data from Eurostat and economic projections from the World Bank, the expected future demand of the MoS is quantify.
The results have been organized considering the flow from SC Tenerife to Zeebrugge and vice versa for the three considered scenarios.
In summary, it can be said, according the assumptions considered in this study, that the forthcoming MoS between SCT and ZEE will have enough cargo demand to guarantee the economical feasibility of the new shipping service, assuming regular service every 10 days and a capacity of 200 units per vessel.